#1
Peak Form
Back-to-back LIV wins (Singapore + South Africa). Nobody in the field is playing better golf right now. Bomber who thrives on Augusta's reachable par 5s. The 18-day LIV-to-Augusta gap is the only concern.
Recent2 consecutive wins
Masters BestT2 (2023)
Driving DistTop 3 on Tour
Implied Prob7.7%
#2
Two-Time Champion
Won 2022 and 2024 Masters. 20 PGA wins before 30 (first since Tiger). Form dipped recently (T12, T24, T22) but he peaks at majors every year. Wife expecting — wildcad factor.
RecentWon American Express
Masters Record2 wins, 4 top-10s
World Ranking#1
Implied Prob17.2%
#3
Best Value
Course Specialist
THE value play. Won Dubai Desert Classic + Qatar Masters recently. 2018 Masters champion with five top-12s in last six Masters starts. The market underrates him because of LIV stigma. Augusta doesn't care about popularity.
Recent2 wins, 1 runner-up
Masters Record1 win, 5 top-12s/6
Course FitElite
Implied Prob3.6%
#4
Players Champion
Just won The Players Championship — the unofficial "5th major." Playing the best golf of his life at the perfect time. Lengthy off the tee, which Augusta rewards.
RecentWon The Players
MomentumPeak confidence
DrivingTop 10 on Tour
Implied Prob3.8%
#5
Ball-Striking Elite
Won Valspar, nearly won The Players (missed 8-footer on 18). Elite ball-striker — and SG: Approach is THE #1 predictor at Augusta. Five of the last seven champions ranked top-5 in approach that week.
RecentWon Valspar
SG: ApproachElite tier
Key StatIron play = #1 at Augusta
Implied Prob4.3%
#6
Defending Champion
Completed the career Grand Slam in 2025. Chasing back-to-back green jackets (last done by Tiger 2001-02). Runner-up at Genesis, solid form. Back issues are the concern.
RecentRunner-up Genesis
Masters 2025Won (playoff)
HealthBack issues
Implied Prob9.1%
#7
2023 Champion
Lost playoff to DeChambeau at LIV South Africa — clearly playing well. 2023 Masters champion who knows Augusta. Same LIV scheduling gap concern as Bryson.
RecentRunner-up LIV SA
Masters 2023Won (-12)
Concern18-day LIV gap
Implied Prob7.7%
#8
Peaking
Shot 63 at The Players to lead at halfway. T3 at Arnold Palmer. The young Swede is peaking at the right time — built for Augusta's length and demands elite ball-striking.
Recent63 at Players, T3 API
TrajectoryRising fast
DrivingTop 15 on Tour
Implied Prob5.9%
#9
Health Watch
Won AT&T Pebble Beach. Most consistent Masters performer per CBS model. But walked off The Players after one hole — health is a serious question mark heading into April.
RecentWon Pebble Beach
Masters ModelTop consistency
HealthPlayers WD (1 hole)
Implied Prob3.6%
#10
Course Knowledge
2015 champion who knows every blade of grass at Augusta. At 33/1 there's value if his putter shows up. The course suits his creative shot-making and imagination around the greens.
Masters 2015Won (-18)
Augusta RecordMultiple top-5s
ConcernInconsistent 2026
Implied Prob2.9%
What Wins at Augusta — Key Stats
SG: Tee-to-Green
Critical
Driving Distance
Important
Last 4 Masters winners ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green. They ranked 22nd, 22nd, 13th, 23rd in SG: Putting. The greens are so brutal that everyone struggles — the edge is made before you reach the green.
Tiger Woods — Will He Play?
Ruptured Achilles (March 2025) + 7th back surgery (October 2025). Returned to competitive golf in TGL Finals. Said he's "working on it" and would NOT rule out playing. If he tees it up, it would be his first competitive round since the 2024 Open Championship. Augusta will be electric.
Rory's Back-to-Back Bid
McIlroy completed the career Grand Slam last year. Now chasing consecutive green jackets — last accomplished by Tiger Woods in 2001-02. History is against him (it's incredibly rare), but the pressure of the Grand Slam chase is gone. He can play free.
LIV vs PGA at Augusta
DeChambeau and Rahm arrive from LIV Golf with an 18-day gap before the Masters. Both are in peak form (combined 3 wins in 2026). The question: does the rust from no competitive reps hurt, or does the rest help? History is mixed.
The Scheffler Factor
The world #1 has cooled off recently (T12, T24, T22) and withdrew from Houston as his wife expects their second child. But Scheffler has a pattern: he dips mid-season then dominates at majors. Two green jackets already. Betting against him at Augusta is brave.
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,565 yards
Grass: Bentgrass greens, overseeded rye fairways
Elevation: Dramatic changes throughout
Key Holes: Amen Corner (11, 12, 13)
Greens Speed: ~14 on Stimpmeter
Par 5s: 2, 8, 13, 15 (all reachable for bombers)
Toughest Hole: #11 (White Dogwood)
Easiest Hole: #15 (Firethorn)
Course Record: 63 (multiple)